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Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers …' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We …-level representative survey data on expectations about future reforms and countrylevel data on online search. We find: (1) Expectations are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012104108
Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers …' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We …-level representative survey data on expectations about future reforms and country-level data on online search. We find: (1) Expectations …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110463
. Macroeconomists increasingly rely on survey data on subjective expectations. An innovative approach to measure aggregate uncertainty … exploits the rounding patterns in individuals' responses to survey questions on inflation expectations (Binder, 2017). This … inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012034114
This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012663180
problem is multilateral punishment, whereby groups of principals jointly punish cheating agents by giving them bad reputations …. But how does such punishment work when there is uncertainty regarding whether an agent actually cheated or was just the … to employ multilateral punishment. We find that a modest amount of uncertainty increases overall welfare because …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012950453
We study risky inter-temporal choice in a large random student sample (n=721) and a large rural sample (n=835) in Malawi. All respondents were exposed to the same 20 Multiple Choice Lists with a rapid elicitation method that facilitated the identification of near-future Certainty Equivalents of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014581476
standard rational expectations model. The ex-ante consumption equivalent variation that equates the expected utility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012850416
Three determining factors for economic inequality are self-chosen effort, self-chosen risk, and external circumstances. The fairness people assign to inequalities due to effort and external circumstances is widely studied. Insights on the fairness of inequalities due to self-chosen effort and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252893
Overconfidence is one of the most ubiquitous cognitive bias. There is copious evidence of overconfidence being relevant in a diverse set of economic domains. In this paper, we relate the recent concept of cognitive uncertainty with overconfidence. Cognitive uncertainty represents a decision...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013257953
We run a laboratory experiment with a two-person game with unique pure Nash equilibrium which is also the solution of the iterative elimination of strictly dominated strategies. The subjects are asked to commit to a device that randomly picks one of three symmetric outcomes in this game...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962034