One of the main challenges for life actuaries is modeling and predicting the future mortality evolution. To this end …, several stochastic mortality models have been proposed in literature, starting from the pivotal approach of the Lee …-Carter model. These models essentially use the ARIMA processes to forecast the future mortality trends. Recently, some research …

Stochastic mortality models seek to forecast future mortality rates; thus, it is apparent that the objective variable … should be the mortality rate expressed in the original scale. However, the performance of stochastic mortality models …-in terms, that is, of their goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy-is often based on the logarithmic scale of the mortality …

Many actuarial science researchers on stochastic modeling and forecasting of systematic mortality risk use Cairns …-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Model (2006) due to its ability to consider the cohort effects. A three-factor stochastic mortality model has three … parameters that describe the mortality trends over time when dealing with future behaviors. This study aims to predict the trends …