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not spanned by the current yield curve. The disaster risk factor delivers a counter cycle bond risk premium, and the … risk accounts for a sizable portion of variations in the time-varying bond risk premium …
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This paper analyzes the influence of downside risk on defaultable bond returns. By introducing a defaultable bond … bond excess returns using a portfolio-level analysis and Fama-MacBeth regressions. We find that downside risk is a strong … and robust predictor for future bond returns. In addition, due to the higher proportion of abnormal transactions in the …
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