"Analyses of public policy regularly express certitude about the consequences of alternative policy choices. Yet policy predictions often are fragile, with conclusions resting on critical unsupported assumptions. Then the certitude of policy analysis is not credible. This paper develops a...

"Although uncertainty is common in patient care, it has not been largely addressed in research on evidence-based medicine. Patient Care Under Uncertainty strives to correct this huge omission. For the past few years, renowned economist Charles Manski has been applying the statistical tools of...

This paper studies an identification problem that arises when clinicians seek to personalize patient care by predicting health outcomes conditional on observed patient covariates. Let y be an outcome of interest and let (x=k, w=j) be observed patient covariates. Suppose a clinician wants to...