explore the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement, as well as their roles in respondents' forecast performance and … forecast revisions. We observe substantial heterogeneity in respondents' uncertainty and disagreement. In addition, there is … little co-movement between uncertainty and disagreement, and forecast performance shows a more robust inverse relationship …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …