Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the riskfree rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact...

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper estimates the degree of uncertainty and asymmetry in the probability forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) using a new methodology. The main conclusion from our...

This paper uses survey data to create a model of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO2 emissions under uncertain climate change policy). The usual way to incorporate the notion of carbon risk into investment decision making is to include a cost of carbon in the budget analysis....

Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are in fact pessimistic, but show marked...

Multi-step-ahead forecasts of forecast uncertainty in practice are often based on the horizon-specific sample means of recent squared forecast errors, where the number of available past forecast errors decreases one-to-one with the forecast horizon. In this paper, the efficiency gains from the...

In der Literatur wird zunehmend untersucht, inwieweit Enthüllungsrisiken durch multivariate Analysemethoden beim indirekten Mikrodatenzugang über die kontrollierte Datenfernverarbeitung (Remote Access) bestehen. Daran anschließend zeigt der Beitrag, wie die Schwerpunkteigenschaft der...

In der Literatur wird zunehmend untersucht, inwieweit Enthüllungsrisiken durch multivariate Analysemethoden beim indirekten Mikrodatenzugang über die kontrollierte Datenfernverarbeitung (Remote Access) bestehen. Daran anschließend zeigt der Beitrag, wie die Schwerpunkteigenschaft der...

In the present work I derive the risk functions of 5 standard estimators for expected asset returns which are frequently advocated in the literature, viz the sample mean vector, the James-Stein and Bayes-Stein estimator, the minimum-variance estimator, and the CAPM estimator. I resolve the...

The aim of this paper is to analyze the merits of using the Value At Risk method in estimating the risk associated with investments in metallurgical sector companies. The paper presents how to construct the model, various methods of its estimation and their advantages and disadvantages. In the...

This paper investigates empirically whether uncertainty about volatility of the market portfolio can explain the performance of hedge funds both in the cross-section and over time. We measure uncertainty about volatility of the market portfolio via volatility of aggregate volatility (VOV) and...