We evaluate whether machine learning methods can better model excess portfolio returns compared to the standard regression-based strategies generally used in the finance and econometric literature. We examine 17 benchmark factor model specifications based on Expected Utility Theory and theory...

Climate science finds that the trend towards higher global temperatures exacerbates the risks of droughts. We investigate whether the prices of food stocks efficiently discount these risks. Using data from thirty-one countries with publicly-traded food companies, we rank these countries each...

Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...

We develop a four-factor model intended to capture size, value, and credit rating transition patterns in excess returns for a panel of predominantly mid- and large-cap entities. Using credit transition matrices and rating histories from 48 US issuers, we provide evidence to support a...

This paper shows that funding liquidity risk is priced in the cross-section of excess returns on agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS). We derive a measure of funding liquidity risk from dollar-roll implied financing rates (IFRs), which reflect security-level costs of financing positions in...

During 2008, the sudden widening of credit spreads led to a rapid decrease in the value of many financial assets, revealing a general shortage of capital for many financial institutions, with some critical peaks that required fund injection and public bailouts.The evidence of a substantial...

Distortions introduced by limited liability towards higher volatility and kurtosis, increased liability skewness, reduced asset skewness and an incentive to decorrelate assets from liabilities are demonstrated in the context of a stylized model. The concept of acceptable risks operationalized by...

One measure of the health of the Social Security system is the difference between the market value of the trust fund and the present value of benefits accrued to date. How should present values be computed for this calculation in light of future uncertainties? We think it is important to use...

This paper revisits what we know about the risk of stocks thanks to a non-US long term database. French stock market risk observed over the last 150 years, presents a long-term rise. Despite peace and economic stability, market risk has never converged to levels seen pre-1914. Reversely, the...

This paper studies a dynamic equilibrium model of asset prices in a partially observable exchange economy. It shows that the precautionary savings motive in response to estimation uncertainty can dominate the risk aversion effect, resulting in the reduction of the equity premium over short...