We forecast monthly Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) using option market data and four different econometric techniques. Independently from the econometric approach used, all models produce quick to estimate forward-looking risk measures that do not depend from the amount...

This paper documents the fact that in options markets, the (percentage) implied volatility bid-ask spread increases at an increasing rate as the option's maturity date approaches. To explain this stylized fact, this paper provides a market microstructure model for the bid-ask spread in options...

We estimate post-jump volatility-decay risk premia as the predictable ‎difference between periods of high and low diffusive volatility. By ‎constructing straddle portfolios after positive and negative jumps occur, we ‎show that the gains that these hedged options' portfolios yield...

Geopolitical events are widely reported in the press and may influence the risk premium demanded by investors in addition to demand and supply of energy resources. Using the daily geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2018), we demonstrate that geopolitical risk plays an important...

We develop a conditional capital asset pricing model in continuous-time that allows for stochastic beta exposure. When beta co-moves with market variance and the stochastic discount factor (SDF), beta risk is priced, and the expected return on a stock deviates from the security market line. The...

A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, nonfinancial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub-additive axiom to preserve the original difference between the numeraire of...

In this paper I investigate the relation between macroeconomic risk and higher-moment risk premia. I use existing methodology on higher-moment swaps and estimate the excess returns for variance and skewness swaps. I also introduce new methodology for kurtosis swaps. The expected excess returns...

Stocks with high idiosyncratic volatility perform poorly relative to low idiosyncratic volatility stocks. We offer a novel explanation of this anomaly based on real options, which is consistent with earlier findings on idiosyncratic volatility (the positive contemporaneous relation between...

This paper proposes a risk measure, based on first-passage probability, which reflects intra-horizon risk in jump models with finite or infinite jump activity. Our empirical investigation shows, first, that the proposed risk measure consistently exceeds the benchmark Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second,...

We measure the skew risk premium in the equity index market through the skew swap. We argue that just as variance swaps can be used to explore the relationship between the implied variance in option prices and realized variance, so too can skew swaps be used to explore the relationship between...