We study the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on sell-side analysts' forecasts, and how it interact with the stock-market response to a firm's earnings news. We find that analysts tend to disagree more when faced with higher levels of EPU, and that their forecasts tend to be less...

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role for asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest...

This paper examines the liquidity, Tobin's Q, and cost of equity effects from voluntary and mandatory IFRS adoption. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the firm level heterogeneity in the economic consequences, recognising that the level of uncertainty avoidance (UAI) in a country will...

There is a growing empirical literature on gold's safe haven status with respect to financial risks but no study with respect to global geopolitical risks. This paper extends the common focus on extreme stock market movements and financial turmoil with an analysis of geopolitical risk. We find...

We study the effects of political uncertainty on commodity markets from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, commodity prices and inventories decline by 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively, and convenience yields increase by 1.9% in the quarter...

We study a regulation that increased mutual funds' risk salience through name change. Using daily fund flow data and several identification strategies, we find that requiring certain fixed income mutual funds to affix an exclamation mark ("!") to their names caused a statistically and...

The authors show that there is a negative relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and firm overinvestment using Korean data from 2007 to 2016. Since Jensen (1986) shows that a firm's free cash flow is an important factor of overinvestment, the authors examine how free cash flow...

As cryptocoins are not tied to fundamental values or to investor protection regulation, their price dynamics is unhinged in both directions. In institutional asset management of conventional asset classes, target volatility concepts and dynamic allocation heuristics are popular to improve the...

This study investigates the predictability of a fixed uncertainty index (UI) for realized variances (volatility) in the international stock markets from a high-frequency perspective. We construct a composite UI based on the scaled principal component analysis (s-PCA) method and demonstrate that...

Economists, observers and policy-makers often emphasize the role of sentiment as a potential driver of the business cycle. In this paper we provide three contributions to this debate. First, we critically survey the existing literature on sentiment (considering both confidence and uncertainty)...