Do illegal insiders internalize legal risk? We address this question with hand-collected data from530 SEC investigations. Using two plausibly exogenous shocks to expected penalties, we showthat insiders trade less aggressively and earlier and concentrate on tips of greater value whenfacing...

We study the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on sell-side analysts' forecasts, and how it interact with the stock-market response to a firm's earnings news. We find that analysts tend to disagree more when faced with higher levels of EPU, and that their forecasts tend to be less...

We find that periods of elevated EPU are associated with higher analyst disagreement, a decrease in forecast accuracy, and a higher degree of conservatism. We show that the decrease in forecast accuracy can be partially attributed to limited attention. A higher level of EPU attracts analysts’...

Using a news-based gauge of geopolitical risk, we study its role for asset pricing in global emerging markets. We find that changes in risk positively predict future stock returns. The countries with the highest increase in geopolitical uncertainty outperform their counterparts with the lowest...

This paper examines the liquidity, Tobin's Q, and cost of equity effects from voluntary and mandatory IFRS adoption. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the firm level heterogeneity in the economic consequences, recognising that the level of uncertainty avoidance (UAI) in a country will...

There is a growing empirical literature on gold's safe haven status with respect to financial risks but no study with respect to global geopolitical risks. This paper extends the common focus on extreme stock market movements and financial turmoil with an analysis of geopolitical risk. We find...

We study the effects of political uncertainty on commodity markets from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, commodity prices and inventories decline by 6.6% and 5.7%, respectively, and convenience yields increase by 1.9% in the quarter...

Using CFTC's COT data, both GARCH and PARCH volatility based models found the lagged volatility and news about volatility from the previous month to be significant in explaining large hedgers' and speculators' volatility. The greater reliance on the ARCH term for speculators' suggested their...

In this paper, we study the mechanisms that govern price stability of MakerDAO's DAI token, the first decentralized stablecoin. DAI works through a set of autonomous smart contracts, in which users deposit cryptocurrency collateral, typically Ethereum, and borrow a fraction of their positions as...

We study a regulation that increased mutual funds' risk salience through name change. Using daily fund flow data and several identification strategies, we find that requiring certain fixed income mutual funds to affix an exclamation mark ("!") to their names caused a statistically and...