In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare...

This paper revisits the performance of frequently used risk forecasting methods, such as the Value-at-Risk models. The aim is to analyze its performance, and mitigate its pitfalls by incorporating conditional variance estimates, as generated by a GARCH model. Notably, this paper tests several...

In the late 90's, after severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern Europe emerged into two groups of countries with radically contrasting monetary regimes (Currency Boards and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare...

We build on Fackler and King (1990) and propose a general calibration model for implied risk neutral densities. Our model allows for the joint calibration of a set of densities at different maturities and dates. The model is a Bayesian dynamic beta Markov random field which allows for possible...

Uncertainty finance presents alternative models for derivative valuation relevant to markets willing to consider subjective information or expert criterium in their operation. This paper proposes a methodology based on experimental data for comparing the prices and the delta and vega risks for...