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Inflation uncertainty and disagreement in bond risk premia
D'Amico, Stefania; Orphanides, Athanasios - 2014
This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the … average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation … uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010441139
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Measuring Interdependence of Inflation Uncertainty
Lee, Seohyun - 2022
inflation. During crises periods, the strength of the transmission of inflation uncertainty shocks from one country to another … tends to intensify. This paper examines empirical methodologies to measure the strength of the interdependence of inflation … uncertainty between the UK and the euro area. We first estimate inflation uncertainty by expost forecast errors from a bivariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078814
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Forecasting macroeconomic risks
Adams, Patrick A.; Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; … - 2020
We construct risks around consensus forecasts of real GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation. We find that risks are … unemployment risk, and increased uncertainty around the inflation forecast. Growth vulnerability arises as the conditional mean and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012167481
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Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors
Clark, Todd E. - 2019
We develop uncertainty measures for point forecasts from surveys such as the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip, or the Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections. At a given point of time, these surveys provide forecasts for macroeconomic variables at multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210484
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Modeling time-varying uncertainty of multiple-horizon forecast errors
Clark, Todd E.; McCracken, Michael W.; Mertens, Elmar - 2017 - This draft: August 31, 2017
We develop uncertainty measures for point forecasts from surveys such as the Survey of Professional Forecasters, Blue Chip, or the Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections. At a given point of time, these surveys provide forecasts for macroeconomic variables at multiple...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011780949
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Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect
Khandani, Amir E.; Lo, Andrew W.; Merton, Robert C. - 2009 - This draft: September 13, 2009
The confluence of three trends in the U.S. residential housing market - rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities - led to vastly increased systemic risk in the financial system. Individually, each of these trends is benign, but when they occur...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003889053
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions : a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - 2016
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MSVAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011443536
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The role of economic policy uncertainty in predicting U.S. recessions : a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive approach
Balcilar, Mehmet; Gupta, Rangan; Segnon, Mawuli - 2016
This paper analyzes the performance of the monthly economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting recessionary regimes of the (quarterly) U.S. GDP. In this regard, the authors apply a mixed-frequency Markov-switching vector autoregressive (MF-MS-VAR) model, and compare its in-sample and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554324
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Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with a heteroscedastic inversion copula
Loiza-Maya, Ruben; Smith, Michael S. - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 38 (2020) 2, pp. 470-486
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012262488
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Average Portfolio Optimization Using Multi-Layer Neural Networks With Risk Consideration
Dehghani, Farbod; Larijani, Ata - 2023
Choosing the appropriate risk criterion has always been one of the main challenges for financial and economic analysts. The goal of this research is to optimize the average portfolio using a multi-layer neural network. In this research, a new model of multilayer neural network has been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350620