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standard approaches (student-t-distribution, log normal, historical simulation) and sophisticated volatility models (EWMA …
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suggested by new growth theory, while addressing the variable selection problem by means of Bayesian model averaging …. Controlling for variable selection uncertainty, we confirm the evidence in favor of new growth theory presented in several earlier …
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The forecasting uncertainty around point macroeconomic forecasts is usually measured by the historical performance of the forecasting model, using measures such as root mean squared forecasting errors (RMSE). This measure, however, has the major drawback that it is constant over time and hence...
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