Selfish utilitarianism, neo-classical economics, the directive of short-term income maximization, and the decision tool of cost-benefit analysis fail to protect our species from the significant risks of too much consumption, pollution, or population. For a longer-term survival, humanity needs to...

In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. An analysis of 286 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide shows that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to...

Precautionary saving typically refers to the additional investment in a risk free asset when exogenous labor income is risky versus certain. When risky income results endogenously from the investment in a risky asset, the meaning and characterization of precautionary saving change and far less...

We model a decision maker who anticipates being tempted but is also uncertain about what is normatively best. Our model is an extended version of Gul and Pesendorfer's (2001) with three time periods: in the ex ante period, the agent chooses a set of menus; in the interim period, she chooses a...

Asset demand tests for Expected Utility have almost universally been implemented in contingent claim settings where markets are complete. However when markets are incomplete, these tests cannot be applied since contingent claim prices cannot be uniquely recovered from given asset prices and the...

In economics, the prevailing framework to explain preferences under uncerta- inty is the Expected Utility theory. Despite its widespread use, the Expected Utility theory is not free from problems. Experimental and empirical works shows that, in real life, the choices of individuals among risky...

Choices made under risk appear to be different depending on decision problem either presented as an explicit description or experienced by subjects in a series of choices and outcomes. The difference, labeled the description-experience gap (DEG; Hertwig and Erev, 2009), has recently attracted a...

The prospect theory is one of the most popular decision-making theories. It is based on the S-shaped utility function, unlike the von Neumann and Morgenstern (NM) theory, which is based on the concave utility function. The S-shape brings in mathematical challenges: simple extensions and...

Motivated by individuals' emotional response to risk at different time horizons, we model an 'anxious' agent - one who is more risk averse with respect to imminent risks than distant risks. Such preferences describe well-documented features of 1) individual behavior, 2) equilibrium prices, and...

We derive a simplified version of the model of Fudenberg and Levine [2006, 2011] and show how this approximate model is useful in explaining choice under risk. We show that in the simple case of three outcomes, the model can generate indifference curves that “fan out” in the Marshack-Machina...