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What are the effects of beliefs, sentiment, and uncertainty, over the business cycle? To answer this question, we develop a behavioral New Keynesian macroeconomic model, in which we relax the assumption of rational expectations. Agents are, instead, boundedly rational: they have a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012294890
We estimate agents' expectations about future fundamentals using a dynamic stochastic generalequilibrium model augmented with anticipated shocks. Accounting for agents' expectations atthe business cycle horizon results in aggregate risk factor innovations that have significant explanatory power...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012643121
We introduce a novel measure of uncertainty that is based on a business survey in which firms are asked directly how certain or uncertain they are. So far the literature has tried to capture economic uncertainty indirectly by means of expectation errors or the extent of disagreement. Our direct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011967403
We embed a news shock, a noisy indicator of the future state, in a two-state Markovswitching growth model. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894302
-uncertainty regimes using past fundamental shocks, but an exogenous uncertainty shock still exists. Model estimation un- covers evidence … of state-dependent uncertainty effects. Shock responses significantly vary, depending on the current uncertainty regime … and shock magnitude. In the high (low) SS-uncertainty regime, economic activities decrease (increase) regardless of shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013404953
increase after a positive shock to core inflation uncertainty in a vector autoregression. Endogenous changes in household … inflation expectations help to understand the transmission mechanism through which an inflation uncertainty shock generates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436184
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628705
This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012228723
A growing recent literature relies on a precautionary pricing motive embedded in representative agent DSGE models with sticky prices and wages to generate negative output effects of uncertainty shocks. We assess whether this theoretical model channel is consistent with the data. Building a New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011597159