We derive a closed-form expansion of option prices in terms of Black-Scholes prices and higher-order Greeks. We show how the true price of an option less its Black-Scholes price is given by a series of premiums on higher-order risks that are not priced under the Black-Scholes model assumptions....

In the seismological and geophysics literature, it is suggested by numerous authors that the elapsed time between two earthquakes at a given location should be represented by either an exponential or Weibull distribution. In addition, the seismic gap hypothesis states that large waiting times...

Mixed exponential distributions are frequently used in actuarial risk modeling. Distributions obtained through mixtures allow greater flexibility in the modeling of non-life insurance loss amounts . Several research works have studied mixed exponential distributions in univariate and...

We present a global sensitivity analysis that quantifies the impact of parameter uncertainty on model outcomes. Specifically, we propose variance‐decomposition‐based Sobol' indices to establish an importance ranking of parameters and univariate effects to determine the direction of their...

In actuarial science, collective risk models, in which the aggregate claim amount of a portfolio is defined in terms of random sums, play a crucial role. In these models, it is common to assume that the number of claims and their amounts are independent, even if this might not always be the...

The topics of Economic Capital modelling, reverse stress testing and credit limits are inextricably intertwined as they all focus on exceptional loss events. In this paper, we use the KVA framework in to frame these three topics within a single unified approach. We propose setting credit limits...

This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial...

Risk capital allocations (RCAs) are an important tool in quantitative risk management, where they are utilized to, e.g., gauge the profitability of distinct business units, determine the price of a new product, and conduct the marginal economic capital analysis. Nevertheless, the notion of RCA...

The exchange of regulatory initial margin for uncleared derivatives (BCBS 261 due on the 1st of September 2016) implies a massive consumption of collateral. This paper proposes a new model to account for collateral and its quality for both fair valuation and CCR capital frameworks defined under...

If we reassess the rationality question under the assumption that the uncertainty of the natural world is largely unquantifiable, where do we end up? In this article the author argues that we arrive at a statistical, normative, and cognitive theory of ecological rationality. The main casualty of...