This paper sets out to investigate the role of additive uncertainty under plausible non-standard central bank loss functions over future inflation. Building on a substantial body of evidence in the economic psychology literature, this paper postulates (i) period-by-period loss functions that are...

This paper provides original empirical evidence on the emerging practice by central banks of communicating uncertainty in their inflation projections. We compare the effects of point and density projections in a learning-to-forecast laboratory experiment where participants' aggregated...

In 1994 the Federal Reserve System moved to a more transparent reporting of monetary policy. In this paper we first discuss the various sources of uncertainty that play an essential role in the formulation and conduct of monetary policy and evaluate the degree of uncertainty faced by monetary...

We study the effect of releasing public information about productivity or monetary shocks when agents learn from nominal prices. While public releases have the benefit of providing new information, they can have the cost of reducing the informational efficiency of the price system. We show that,...

We study the effect of releasing public information about productivity or monetary shocks when agents learn from nominal prices. While public releases have the benefit of providing new information, they can have the cost of reducing the informational efficiency of the price system. We show that,...

Consider legal uncertainty as uncertainty about the legality of a specific action. In particular, suppose that the threshold of legality is uncertain. I show that this legal uncertainty raises welfare. Legal uncertainty changes deterrence in opposite directions. The probability of conviction...