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A comment on the bias of probabilities derived from betting odds and their use in measuring outcome uncertainty
Štrumbelj, Erik - In: Journal of sports economics 17 (2016) 1, pp. 12-26
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011422895
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Golden rule of forecasting : be conservative
Armstrong, Jon Scott; Green, Kesten C.; Graefe, Andreas - In: Journal of business research : JBR 68 (2015) 8, pp. 1717-1731
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011317073
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Bootstrap VAR forecasts : the effect of model uncertainties
Fresoli, Diego - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 2, pp. 279-293
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012817747
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How Analysts’ Ability Affects Forecast Timing Under Bias and Uncertainty?
Malevergne, Yannick - 2018
of forecast bias and (ii) investors' limited capability to adjust to this bias. We assume that the presence of a bias is … skills, all the more so the larger the uncertainty about the forecast bias …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012928822
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Rounding bias in forecast uncertainty
Levenko, Natalia - In: Research in economics : an international review of economics 74 (2020) 4, pp. 277-291
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590377
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Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany : a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich - In: Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for … 31 (2006) 3, pp. 777-798
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003352698
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When do forecasters disagree? An assessment of German growth and inflation forecast dispersion
Döpke, Jörg; Fritsche, Ulrich - In: International journal of forecasting 22 (2006) 1, pp. 125-135
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003283959
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Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions : a Bayesian approach
Kelly, David L.; Letson, David; Nelson, Forrest D.; … - In: Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 81 (2012) 2, pp. 644-663
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009626403
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Growth and inflation forecasts in Germany : an assessment of accuracy and dispersion
Döpke, Jörg (contributor); Fritsche, Ulrich (contributor) - 2004 - [Elektronische Ressource]
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001971175
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Unbiased estimator for the ultimate prediction uncertainty in the chain-ladder model of Mack
Siegenthaler, Filippo - 2021
We derive in a straightforward manner and through a unified framework the main known results related to the estimation of the ultimate prediction uncertainty within the famous Mack's distribution-free chain-ladder model, specifically, the Mack and BBMW formulas, and explain the deviation between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235368