These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

This paper studies A+B (cost-plus-time) procurement contracting with time incentives in the highway construction industry. In the presence of construction uncertainty, the contractor's actual completion time may deviate from the bid completion time, and the A+B contract design is not ex post...

In first-price sealed-bid auctions, a power probability weighting function is observationally equivalent to a model of constant absolute risk aversion. By comparing auctions with different ceilings on a computerized opponent’s bid space, we can separate subjective probability weighting and...

This paper documents the existence of primary dealers’ losses in Treasury bond markets and investigates how these losses a¤ect dealers’ market value. Using a novel data set that tracks more than 2,350 primary-to-secondary transactions, we find that bond losses for primary dealers are...

This paper derives ex-ante (co)variances of stock-level and portfolio-level risk premium predictions from neural networks (NNs). Based on the precision of risk premium forecasts, I provide improved investment strategies. The confident high-low strategies that take long-short positions...

This paper studies cost-plus-time (A+B) procurement contracting with time incentives in the highway construction industry. In the presence of construction uncertainty, the contractor’s actual completion time may deviate from the bid completion time, and the A+B contract design is not ex-post...