Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

Using a representative online panel from the US, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood...

In the context of income dynamics, we investigate whether aspects of agents' superior information relative to the econometrician's limited information are captured in subjective expectations data. It is natural, for instance, to assume that the econometrician cannot observe idiosyncratic shocks...

We examine the role of expectations in a model aimed to explain financial fluctuations. The model restates the core of Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, focusing on the role of expectations. The hypotheses concerning the process of formation and revision of expectations are discussed in...

We analyze the influence of individuals' degree of extraversion and neuroticism on the determinants of their risk-taking behavior in investment decisions. As there are no studies that investigate the influence of personality traits on risk attitude, risk perception, and return expectations in...

I construct a novel measure of household uncertainty based on survey data for European countries. I show that household uncertainty shocks do not universally behave like negative demand shocks. Notably, household uncertainty shocks are largely inflationary in Europe. Further analysis, including...

Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...

Climate change is projected to severely damage the global economy. Adaptation in response to a changing climate will affect how much damage ultimately occurs. This paper introduces a method for estimating forward-looking adaptation based on differences in responses to forecasts and realizations...

Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals' welfare. We examine how workers' expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform...

This paper takes advantage of the COVID-19 outbreak to explore the determinants of firms' R&D choices around an exogenous shock. We make use of unique panel data on 7,800 Italian companies between January 2020 - right before the pandemic - and March of the same year - amid lockdown policies. We...