basis of available information at the time the budget is prepared; we find that the forecast error based is six times … greater than the error based on ex-post projection. These results imply that the forecast error predominantly reflects … are even more limited — based only on lagged tax revenues and a GDP growth forecast — provide less-accurate projections …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

the bootstrapping technique, allow the ex ante probability of, for example, a negative GDP growth forecast for the current …

Macroeconomic risk assessments play an important role in the forecasts of many institutions. A risk forecast is related … to the potential asymmetry of the forecast density. In this work, we investigate how the optimality of such risk … possible. In general, tests for macroeconomic risk forecast optimality tend to have at best moderate power given the …

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach … been applied to oil price forecasting, by allowing for sequentially updating of time-varying combination weights …

are considered. Generally, preliminary preparations of forecast corrections are shown to be able, under specified …