Protection against disclosure is important for statistical agencies releasing microdata files from sample surveys. Simple measures of disclosure risk can provide useful evidence to support decisions about release. We propose a new measure of disclosure risk: the probability that a unique match...

The paper establishes a correspondence between statistical disclosure control and forensic statistics regarding their common use of the concept of ‘probability of identification’. The paper then seeks to investigate what lessons for disclosure control can be learnt from the forensic...

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the efficiency and effectiveness of alternative credit-scoring models for consumer loans in the banking sector. In particular, the focus is upon the financial risks associated with both the efficiency of alternative models in terms of correct...

The aim of much horserace modelling is to appraise the informational efficiency of betting markets. The prevailing approach involves forecasting the runners’ finish positions by means of discrete or continuous response regression models. However, theoretical considerations and empirical...

Mixture cure models were originally proposed in medical statistics to model long-term survival of cancer patients in terms of two distinct subpopulations – those that are cured of the event of interest and will never relapse, along with those that are uncured and are susceptible to the event....

Accurately estimating the winning probabilities of participants in competitive events, such as elections and sports events, represents a challenge to standard forecasting frameworks such as regression or classification. They are not designed for modelling the competitive element, whereby a...