We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated...

In 2010, the European (EU) High Level Expert Group on milk proposed the introduction of standard contracts between raw milk producers and processors to improve the bargaining position of producers and to stabilize the market by balancing dairy supply and demand. However, contracts may distort...

We develop a Bayesian framework for estimating non-stationary Markov models in situations where macro population data is available only on the proportion of individuals residing in each state, but micro-level sample data is available on observed transitions between states. Posterior...

Characteristics of farm level yield and revenue loss that is systemic with yield and revenue loss at the county, state, and U.S. level are examined using farm yields from the Illinois and Kansas farm business management associations. The data begins with 1972. Share of yield and revenue loss...

Recent changes in federal farm programs and contemporary farm program proposals highlight an evolving shift in farm policy from income support to risk management. A mix of price- and revenue-based commodity programs as well as yield- and revenue-based insurance products provide crop producers a...

Although significant research has been done on managing farmers’ financial risk through federal programs such as federal crop insurance, to date, little attention has been paid to the ability of on-farm management’s potential to mitigate agricultural risk. Federal crop insurance could...

Topic Relevance Foliar diseases often reduce grain yields of winter wheat in the southern Great Plains, with some individual year yield losses in excess of 10%. At current prices, the gross value of these losses for the region could exceed a quarter of a billion dollars annually. Historically,...

When natural disasters strike in developing countries, households are often forced to choose between preserving assets or consumption: either can result in permanent consequences. In this paper we ask: can insurance transfer risk in a way that reduces the need for households to rely on costly...