The purpose of this research is the realistic forecast of volatility in frame of a risk parity class of strategies. The custom rescaling of volatility – naïve risk parity - doesn't consider market inefficiencies which correspond to cyclical patterns like crisis and the following recovery. The...

Risk Parity (RP), also called equally weighted risk contribution, is a recent approach to risk diversification for portfolio selection. RP is based on the principle that the fractions of the capital invested in each asset should be chosen so as to make the total risk contributions of all assets...

We present a new profitable trading and risk management strategy with transaction cost for an adaptive equally weighted portfolio. Moreover, we implement a rule-based expert system for the daily financial decision making process by using the power of spectral analysis. We use several key...

Within the finance literature there is an apparent gap between the inherent risk premium ignorance of a risk parity approach on the one hand and the assumed risk premium clairvoyance of a mean variance approach on the other. We propose a portfolio selection framework that allows an investor to...

We introduce and explore Gini-type measures of risk and variability, and develop the corresponding economic capital allocation rules. The new measures are coherent, additive for co-monotonic risks, convenient computationally, and require only finiteness of the mean. To elucidate our theoretical...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

The catastrophic events are characterized by "low frequency and high severity". Nevertheless, during the last decades, both the frequency and the magnitude of these events have been significantly rising worldwide. In 2021, the European Commission adopted a new Strategy on Adaptation to Climate...

There is nothing like a market crash to focus the mind on the importance of risk management and, more specifically, tail risk management. Because tail events are generally systemic in nature and are characterised by elevated correlations and liquidity squeezes, effective tail risk management is...

Machine learning models are increasingly used in a wide variety of financial settings. The difficulty of understanding the inner workings of these systems, combined with their wide applicability, has the potential to lead to significant new risks for users; these risks need to be understood and...