In this article we examine the pricing of option contracts on the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) and consider how these can be used by both the government and refiners. We analyze the interaction between the call and put option contracts, taking into account the underlying game, in the...

We model a multi-echelon system where disruptions can occur at any stage and evaluate multiple strategies for protecting customer service if a disruption should occur. The strategies considered take advantage of the network itself and include satisfying demand from an alternate location in the...

In this paper we give a resume of the correlation concept that underlies the models for credit risk measurement, for the rating of structured products, for the pricing of (tranches of) structured products, and for Basel II capital charges. We discuss how securitization has changed the risk...

Banking systems are at the center of the financial infrastructure of any country. It has become apparent after the subprime crisis that such systems cannot be studied by looking at their components individually (that is, in isolation). Thus, an integrated approach is needed.In this paper we...

The purpose of this research is the realistic forecast of volatility in frame of a risk parity class of strategies. The custom rescaling of volatility – naïve risk parity - doesn't consider market inefficiencies which correspond to cyclical patterns like crisis and the following recovery. The...

In this paper we address the issue of assessing and communicating the joint probabilities implied by density forecasts from multivariate time series models. We focus our attention in three areas. First, we investigate a new method of producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty...

Machine learning models are increasingly used in a wide variety of financial settings. The difficulty of understanding the inner workings of these systems, combined with their wide applicability, has the potential to lead to significant new risks for users; these risks need to be understood and...

This paper presents a mathematical model to evaluate the risks of arbitration in contractual disputes to decide whether or not to raise an arbitration case for a claim. It adds the ingredient of a regret theory approach for taking that decision, if an amicable settlement amount is not agreed....

The constant proportion portfolio insurance is a dynamic strategy of investment protecting a fund against a fall of its market value below a predetermined floor. In this work, we revisit the CPPI under the assumption that the risky asset is a stochastic process whose the average return and...

Demonstration of the omnipresence of noise in volatilities of returns of financial instruments.Demonstration that more than 30% of SP500 securities can have percentage change in volatility of more than 10% as a result of noise filtering.In our white paper “Filtering Noise From Correlation...