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Using textual analysis of earnings conference calls, we quantify firm level risk arising from the reliability of the supply chain from 2002 to 2020. Our proxy for perceived supply chain risk exhibits cross-sectional and time-series variation that aligns with reasonable priors and is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013296905
An increase in the riskiness of a technology will raise economy-wide expected output: the technology can be used intensively if its productivity realization is large and curtailed otherwise. Some investment in even the riskiest technologies can therefore bring Pareto improvements. The observed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013235191
We analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic growth expectations in Mexico through the Growth at Risk … lagged values of a measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and other drivers. Second, based on the fitted values of the quantile … in macroeconomic uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant impact on the left tail of the growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014391253
Classical contributions in international macroeconomics rely on goods-market mechanisms to reconcile the cyclicality of real exchange rates when financial markets are incomplete. However, cross-border trade in one domestic and one foreign-currency-denominated risk-free asset prohibits these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014444414
Even though financial risk management has the ability to generate value, the use of financial derivatives among nonfinancial corporations remains limited. We identify a channel that contributes to this limited use: the decoupling of derivatives losses and operational gains. Specifically, firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014414181
In contrast to Robert Mundell‘s Optimum Currency Area theory and his recommendation of forming monetary union, the economic fundamentals of Euro area member countries have not harmonized. The opposite holds: the Euro core countries – most of all Germany, but also the Netherlands and Finland...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013069650
The main research question of this empirical work is whether or not globalization, in its various forms, has had an impact upon international risk sharing. The empirical literature so far has only investigated on one aspect of globalization: economic and financial integration. By decomposing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013112638
The sending of remittances is a decentralised decision of migrant workers, nevertheless it has its macroeconomic implication in providing insurance against domestic output shocks in the recipient economies – a phenomenon known in literature as risk sharing. Using a large sample of 86...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060396
This paper criticises the standard methodology used to measure the importance of different channels of risk sharing in federal states such as the one used in Asdrubali et al.'s (1996) seminal contribution. It argues that the methodology chosen in these papers systematically underestimates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011919725
In this paper, I study individual currency pairs and examine the behavior of the cross section of their carry returns with the USD. Developed and emerging market carry trades yield high Sharpe ratios even after adjusting for transaction costs. I show that carry trade risks carry trade risks are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133935