We show that the innovation in the risk-neutral probability of large downward and upward jumps in oil prices has a considerable predictive power for important economic indicators such as GDP growth, consumption growth, and total investment. In addition, we observe that the upside jump risk...

This book discusses the art and science of economic decision making. It combines logical thinking with analytics, economics, and finance to draw decision insights for the upstream petroleum projects. The book offers useful analysis skills for practitioners in industry, including analysts,...