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We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile factors allows for summarizing these two heterogeneities in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014350458
We propose to regard the central banker as a risk manager who aims to contain inflation within pre-specified bounds. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319941
in US inflation indices such as CPI and PPI and briefly discusses its implications for risk management as well as the … significant inflation risk faced by lower-income households in urban areas such as New York City. To address the latter, it … proposes an inflation insurance fund that can purchase low-cost insurance during inflation down cycles and use payoffs in up …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014258570
This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831601
Inflation risk is of high relevance in non-life insurers' long-tail business and can have a major impact on claims … reserving. In this paper, we empirically study claims inflation with focus on automobile liability insurance based on a data set … inflation risk and its impact on reserving. Toward this end, we use stepwise multiple regression analysis to identify relevant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031587
Project finance investments are highly exposed to inflation risk, especially if they are financed by foreign debt and … located in developing countries with volatile currencies. In Public Private Partnerships, inflation risk may be mostly born by …, up to a force majeure earth-quaking threshold. In its uneven impact, inflation may consequentially remix corporate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013126273
In this research paper ARCH-type models and option implied volatilities (IV) are applied in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of a stock index futures portfolio for several time horizons. The relevance of the asymmetries in the estimated volatility estimation is considered. The empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292347
producing fan charts that better communicates the uncertainty present in forecasts from multivariate time series models. Second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989353
rules that are robust with respect to model uncertainty facing both the policymaker and private sector. We apply our … methodology to three simple interest-rate rules: inflation-forecast-based (IFB) rules with a discrete forward horizon, one … targeting a discounted sum of forward inflation, and a current wage inflation rule. We use an estimated DSGE model of the euro …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316594
of uncertainty, the recession in the UK cannot be ruled out. The decline in capital inflows to the UK economy can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012986099