We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks’ contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks’ systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks’ assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic...

In line with regulations and common risk management practice, the credit risk of a portfolio is managed via its potential future exposures (PFEs), expected exposures (EEs), and related measures, the expected positive exposure (EPE), effective expected exposure (EEE), and the effective expected...

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk...

We propose an improved methodology for modelling potential scenario paths of banks' riskweighted assets, which drive the denominator of capital adequacy ratios. Our approach centres on modelling the internal risk structure of bank portfolios and thus aims to provide more accurate estimations...

This paper analyses the exposure to climate risk of ABS, an asset class frequently pledged as collateral in the European Central Bank (ECB) refinancing operations. This paper focuses on ABS backed by auto loans or loans granted to Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and explores ways to measure...

In order to provide a tool for risk management improvement and appropriate regulation, a methodology for measuring interest rate risk is applied in this paper. After estimating and simulating the interest rate term structure, the value at risk and expected shortfall are calculated on a...

We provide an extreme value analysis of the returns of Bitcoin. A particular focus is on the tail risk characteristics and we will provide an in-depth univariate extreme value analysis. Those properties will be compared to the traditional exchange rates of the G10 currencies versus the US...

This paper utilizes VAR techniques to examine the relationship between a policy related variable and selected macro-variables in China. Johansen’s cointegration tests fail to find a moving equilibrium among the related variables. Based on a VAR model in first differences, we find that an...

Modern central banks have adopted a 'risk management' approach in assessing and presenting risks to macroeconomic stability. This paper seeks to contribute to the improvement of central banks' current strategies for Central and Eastern European countries, first by assessing the potential size of...

Credit boom detection methodologies (such as threshold method) lack robustness as they are based on univariate detrending analysis and resort to ratios of credit to real activity. I propose a quantitative indicator to detect atypical behavior of credit from a multivariate system - a monetary...