We construct “Hybrid Value at Risk” (HYVAR) that is an arbitrary mixture of Historical VAR and Monte Carlo VAR. The procedure is capable of retaining both the correlation matrix of the original time series and also jumps/‘fat tails'. For this reason HYVAR provides more realistic scenarios,...

Empirical Finance is in crisis: Our most important "discovery" tool is historical simulation, and yet, most backtests published in leading Financial journals are flawed.The problem is well-known to professional organizations of Statisticians and Mathematicians, who have publicly criticized the...

This research aims to solve the ambiguities that arise from stock risk estimation of an emerging market. Risk is not defined as variability but as a possibility of loss or of a weaker than market performance. Stock risk is estimated through the analysis of the underlying business, respectively...

• The first ever explicit formulation of the concept of an option's probability density functions has been introduced in our publications "Breakthrough in Understanding Derivatives and Option Based Hedging - Marginal and Joint Probability Density Functions of Vanilla Options -- True...

•The first ever explicit formulation of the concept of an option's probability density functions has been introduced in our publication “Breakthrough in Understanding Derivatives and Option Based Hedging - Marginal and Joint Probability Density Functions of Vanilla Options - True...

We present a new technique for obtaining a positive definite (PD) correlation matrix from a stressed target matrix within the context of Advanced Stressed Value at Risk, (cf. Dash ). The technique uses the spherical decomposition and a “nearest neighbor” technique. The advantage is that...

In this article we present the motivation and methodology behind the Tail Risk Model for Equities. This model provides portfolio managers with reports on tail risk measures, such as VaR and Expected Shortfall in a non‐normal setting, and attributes risk to individual securities and factors. We...

We compare several models that forecast ex-ante Bitcoin one-day Value-at-Risk (VaR), starting from the simplest ones like Parametric Normal and Historical Simulation and arriving at Historical Filtered Bootstrap and Extreme Value Theory Historical Filtered Bootstrap. We also consider Gaussian...

Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we propose flexible methods that exploit recent developments in financial econometrics and are likely to produce more accurate risk assessments, treating...