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Climate risks and forecastability of US inflation : evidence from dynamic quantile model averaging
Luo, Jiawen; Fu, Shengjie; Cepni, Oguzhan; Gupta, Rangan - 2024
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014529004
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Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure : an arbitrage-free approach
Chen, Shi; Härdle, Wolfgang; Wang, Weining - 2015
Inflation expectation is acknowledged to be an important indicator for policy makers and financial investors. To … capture a more accurate real-time estimate of inflation expectation on the basis of financial markets, we propose an arbitrage …-free model across different countries in a multi-maturity term structure, where we first estimate inflation expectation by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389060
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Asymmetric volatility effects in risk management: an empirical analysis using a stock index futures
Benavides, Guillermo - 2020
volatility estimation is considered. The empirical analysis is performed on futures contracts of both the Standard and Poors 500 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292347
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Semiparametric conditional quantile models for financial returns and realized volatility
Žikeš, Filip; Jozef, Baruník - 2014
This paper investigates how the conditional quantiles of future returns and volatility of financial assets vary with various measures of ex-post variation in asset prices as well as option-implied volatility. We work in the exible quantile regression framework and rely on recently developed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407475
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Heterogeneity in manufacturing growth risk
Opschoor, Daan; Dijk, Dick van; Franses, Philip Hans - 2021
We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510760
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Tail risks, asset prices, and investment horizons
Baruník, Jozef; Nevrla, Matěj - 2019
We examine how extreme market risks are priced in the cross-section of asset returns at various horizons. Based on the frequency decomposition of covariance between indicator functions, we define the quantile cross-spectral beta of an asset capturing tail-specific as well as horizon-, or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009758
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Value-at-risk and expected shortfall when there is long range dependence
Härdle, Wolfgang (contributor); Mungo, Julius (contributor) - 2008
portfolio (Bayer, Siemens and Volkswagen). Classical V aR estimation methodology such as exponential moving average (EMA) as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636008
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Value-at-risk on Central and Eastern European stock markets: an empirical investigation using GARCH models
Bubák, Vít (contributor) - 2008
Using daily return data from the four major Central and Eastern European stock markets including fourteen highly liquid stocks and ATX (Vienna), PX (Prague), BUX (Budapest), and WIG20 (Warsaw) market indices, we model the value-at-risk using a set of univariate GARCH-type models. Our results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003755230
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Hybrid historical simulation VaR and ES : performance in developed and emerging markets
Zikovic, Sasa; Filer, Randall Keith - 2009
We introduce a new hybrid approach to joint estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) for high … lower cost in capital reserves. In ES estimation the hybrid model yields the smallest error statistics surpassing even the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891679
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Fat-tails in VAR models
Chiu, Ching Wai Jeremy; Mumtaz, Haroon; Pinter, Gabor - 2014
We confirm that standard time-series models for US output growth, inflation, interest rates and stock market returns …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339759