Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful...

Perhaps the most puzzling feature of currency prices is the tendency for high interest rate currencies to appreciate, when the expectations hypothesis suggests the reverse. Some have attributed this forward premium anomaly to a time-varying risk premium, but theory has been largely unsuccessful...

We estimate the effects of conditional inflation moments on predictable returns available from currency speculation using an arbitrage based model to decompose the risk premium into conditional inflation, real risk, and their interactions. Using two different empirical methods to identify these...