In this paper, we used modified multivariate EGARCH-M models to assess the relation between the equity risk premium, macroeconomic risk, and inflationary expectations. To rationalise this link between equity risk premia and macroeconomic volatilities, we built our empirical study on the...

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the time-series predictive ability of foreign exchange risk measures on the return to the carry trade, a popular investment strategy that borrows in low-interest currencies and lends in high-interest currencies. Using quantile regressions, we...

We discover a new currency strategy with highly desirable return and diversification properties, which uses the predictive capability of currency volatility risk premia for currency returns. The volatility risk premium -- the difference between expected realized volatility and model-free implied...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange endusers. The results suggest that order flows...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange end-users. The results suggest that order flows...

This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for a ne term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...

We study the properties of foreign exchange risk premiums that can explain the forward bias puzzle, defined as the tendency of high-interest rate currencies to appreciate rather than depreciate. These risk premiums arise endogenously from the no-arbitrage condition relating the term structure of...

We analyze the risk-return trade-off in the US Treasury market using a term-structure model that features volatility-in-mean effects of multiple sources, and yet preserves tractable bond prices. We find a strong positive relation between risks and risk premia over the 1966-2018 period. While...