This paper documents the existence of a slowly evolving trend in the dividend-price ratio, dp, determined by a demographic variable, MY: the middle-aged to young ratio. Deviations of the dividend-price ratio from this slowly evolving long-run component explain transitory but persistent...

This paper investigates the risk contagion channel of the global financial crisis into Japan using daily data on bond risk premiums for the financial and manufacturing industries from July 18, 2006 to May 25, 2010. We employ a bivariate EGARCH model with the constant exogenous contagion impacts...

The stock market predictability has been a favorite topic of scholars and practitioners alike. It seems that some small predictability is present in all major stock markets worldwide. This predictability can be attributed to the risk premium structure and/or to inefficiencies present in the...

I construct a measure of the extreme liquidity risk factor based on the contraction and expansion of monthly cross-sectional distributions of individual illiquidity measures and investigate its asset pricing implications. I find strong empirical evidence (1) that the extreme liquidity risk is...

To attenuate an inherent errors-in-variables bias, portfolios are widely employed for risk premium estimation; but portfolios might diversify away and thus mask relevant risk- or return-related features of individual assets. We propose a resolution that allows the use of individual assets while...

These days it's become convention (reinforced by the media's treatment of wealth) to assess our net worth by tallying up the market value of our financial assets, even though it's more natural and useful to think of our wealth as a stream of dollars over time given the nature of our income and...

The longest bull market in US stock market history is over. Uncertainty over the public health and economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will keep markets extremely volatile, making it likely we'll touch a wide range of price levels in the months ahead. Amidst such uncertainty, it's a...

In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as “anomalies” the theory of rational finance cannot explain: (i) Predictability of asset returns; (ii) The Equity Premium; (iii) The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of...

We develop new liquidity measures for bond markets. Existing measures suffer from the combination of two effects. First, transaction costs in OTC markets strongly depend on trade size. Second, many bonds trade only scarcely with strongly differing trading volumes. Therefore, changes in average...

The VIX barely drops at macro-announcements. This is at odds with virtually all models that attempt to explain the "macro-announcement premium." We point out that the macro-announcement sample is too small, considering the high volatility and fat tail of daily returns. Our small-sample argument...