Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...

Using data for the trades of 19 central banks intervening in currency markets, we show that stabilization policies by individual central banks lead to "systematic intervention" patterns. This systematic intervention is driven by and impacts on the same factors that drive currency excess returns:...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange endusers. The results suggest that order flows...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange end-users. The results suggest that order flows...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...