We show that existing metrics of CDS returns poorly approximate cash flow-based CDS returns. Given the complexities involved in computing CDS returns correctly, we provide a simple closed-form approximation that bears a correlation of no less than 99% with the true return series. Our work...

We investigate whether a model with time-varying probability of economic disaster can explain prices of collateralized debt obligations. We focus on senior tranches of the CDX, an index of credit default swaps on investment grade firms. These assets do not incur losses until a large fraction of...

This paper examines whether the tone of corporate textual disclosures related to risk and uncertainty conveys relevant information to the credit default swap (CDS) market. Prior studies largely focus on the amount of risk disclosures and provide inconclusive evidence on the usefulness of risk...

In this study, we derive a CDS implied equity volatility index from highly liquid one-year contracts in the Eurozone, and for the inclusive period 2008-2014. We analyze the relationship between this volatility index and the VSTOXX 12M within a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive...

This study proposes models that can be used as shorthand analysis tools for CDS spreads and CDS spread changes. For this purpose, we examine the determinants of CDS spreads and spread changes on a broad database of 718 US firms during the period from early 2002 to early 2013. Contrary to...

This article studies the economic factors behind corporate default risk premia in Europe during the period 2006–2010. We employ information embedded in Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts to quantify expected excess returns from the underlying bonds in market-wide default circumstances. We...

The spread risk premium component of credit default swap (CDS) spreads represents a compensation demanded by protection sellers for future changes in CDS spreads caused by unpredictable fluctuations in the reference entity's risk-neutral default intensity. This paper defines and estimates a...

As observed in the financial crisis, CDS spreads tend to increase simutaneously as a reaction to common shocks. Focusing on the spillover effects triggered by extreme events, we propose a credit risk analysis tool by applying credit default swap spread returns to the concept of 4CoVaR suggested...

Default risk in equity returns can be measured by structural models of default. In this paper we propose a credit warning signal (CWS) based on the Merton default risk (MDR) model and a Regime-switching default risk (RSDR) model. The RSDR model is a generalization of the MDR model, comprises...

We propose an equilibrium model for defaultable bonds that are subject to contagion risk. Contagion arises because agents with "fragile beliefs'' are uncertain about the underlying economic state and its probability. Estimation on sovereign European credit default swaps (CDS) data shows that...