Many studies investigate the impact of heterogeneous beliefs in the first moment, while very few in the second moment. This is partially due to continuous-time setup which makes it difficult to incorporate heterogeneous beliefs in the second moment. In a two-period exponential–normal model...

In this paper we examine the relevance of currency risk in emerging countries using a conditional version of an international capital pricing model. Our results show that both currency risk and market risk are time-varying and priced in emerging stock markets. In particular, the currency risk...

We present a framework of heterogeneous yield curves of agents based on the pricing kernel approach in order to model LIBOR and basis swap rates. Each yield curve may imply different prices of assets but is consistent with swap rates, basis swap rates and foreign exchange rates. We show three...

We decompose the variance risk premium into upside and downside variance risk premia. These components reflect market compensation for changes in good and bad uncertainties. Their difference is a measure of the skewness risk premium (SRP), which captures asymmetric views on favorable versus...

In this financial engineering research, we study the behaviour of an option premium of a call/put option which is embedded in a typical fixed coupon bond with finite maturity. The contribution of the research is the conclusion about the dynamics of premium changes; represented by direction and...

How does sovereign risk affect investors' behavior? We answer this question using a novel database that combines sovereign default probabilities for 27 developed and emerging markets with monthly data on the portfolios of individual bond mutual funds. We first show that changes in yields do not...

A 'lost decade' for the Eurozone is looming on the horizon. Under these circumstances, stable indicators for future economic activity are especially valuable to decision makers. This paper examines the predictive power of the yield spread, one of the most reliable indicators for gross domestic...

This article shows that the "risk premium" shock in Smets and Wouters (2007) can be interpreted as a structural shock to the demand for safe and liquid assets such as short-term US Treasury securities. Several implications of this interpretation are discussed.

An OLS and probit framework is used to examine the predictive power of yield spreads with respect to GDP growth and recessions in the Eurozone from the 1990s to the recent past. Credit default swap (CDS) data on sovereign bonds, which provide a direct measure of default risk, are employed as...

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies - momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns - a...