We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...

Using the vector autoregression (VAR) analysis, this study empirically documents the impulse response functions of financial stress and market risk premiums and performs a causality test of these two variables. The analysis of the monthly changes of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis...

Objective: The objective of this article is to investigate the behaviours of the Ukrainian lending rate, deposit rate, and intermediation premium from January 2000 to January 2019, or the post-1999 era. Research Design & Methods: The Perron’s (1997) endogenous unit root test, the Threshold...

Scholars of state politics are often interested in the causal effects of legislative institutions on policy outcomes. For example, during the 1990s a number of states adopted term limits for state legislators. Advocates of term limits argued that this institutional reform would alter state...

We study risk premiums in the US Treasury bond market from the perspective of a Bayesian econometrician RA who learns in real-time from disagreement among investors about future bond yields. Notably, disagreement has substantial predictive power for yields, and RA's risk premiums are less...