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Downward nominal rigidities and bond premia
Gourio, François; Ngo, Phuong - 2024
We develop a parsimonious New Keynesian macro-finance model with downward nominal rigidities to understand secular and cyclical movements in Treasury bond premia. Downward nominal rigidities create state-dependence in output and inflation dynamics: a higher level of inflation makes prices more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014505834
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Option-Implied Asymmetry and Market Returns
O'Sullivan, Conall; Wang, Yan - 2022
estimate a novel risk-neutral quantile-based asymmetry measure (RNA) from S&P 500 index options. In contrast to existing risk … one to twelve weeks. Our findings suggest that ex-ante systematic asymmetry does matter when predicting excess market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236004
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The interactions and trade-offs of sovereign Credit Default SWAP (CDS) and bond spreads in a dynamic context
Tampakoudis, Ioannis A.; Tamošiūnas, Andrius; … - In: Journal of business economics and management 20 (2019) 3, pp. 466-488
This study provides a dynamic analysis of the lead-lag relationship between sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS) and bond spreads of the highly indebted southern European countries, considering an extensive time sample from the period before the global financial crisis to the latest developments...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012175748
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Forecasting high-yield bond spreads using the loan market as leading indicator
Simmons-Süer, Banu - 2013
This paper attempts to find an aggregate leading indicator to predict the spreads observed for high-yield (HY) bond indices. Using a vector error correction (VEC) specification for quarterly data, we establish a long-term equilibrium relationship between the HY market spreads and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009707628
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A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing
Farkas, Walter; Gourier, Elise; Huitema, Robert; … - 2016 - This version: May 20, 2016
retaining the exponential affine structure of previous approaches, our model allows for an arbitrary number of cointegration … relationships. We show that the cointegration component allows capturing well-known features of commodity prices, i.e., upward … provide compelling evidence of cointegration in the data. Implications for the prices of futures and options written on common …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011507774
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No-Arbitrage Near-Cointegrated Var(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth
Jardet, Caroline - 2011
The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013132933
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Forecasting High-Yield Bond Spreads Using the Loan Market as Leading Indicator
Simmons-Süer, Banu - 2013
This paper attempts to find an aggregate leading indicator to predict the spreads observed for high-yield (HY) bond indices. Using a vector error correction (VEC) specification for quarterly data, we establish a long-term equilibrium relationship between the HY market spreads and its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013087113
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Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality
Brand, Claus; Goy, Gavin; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2021
We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage-free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation (π*),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705391
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European Sovereign CDS Premia during the Crisis – A Cointegration Analysis
Schmidt, Alexander - 2013
In this paper, I use multivariate time series models in order to analyze the evolution of European Sovereign CDS spreads during the recent crisis. I find evidence that sovereigns' credit risk premia are non-stationary but cointegrated with simple measures of the countries' indebtedness and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078906
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Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality
Brand, Claus; Goy, Gavin; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2020
Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012425011