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consistent with an asset pricing model allowing for both time-varying jump intensity and stochastic volatility of volatility to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012904660
market index. The tail loss measure is motivated by the results of the extreme value theory, and it is computed from observed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100653
This paper introduces a new out-of-sample forecasting methodology for monthly market returns using the variance risk premium (VRP) that is both statistically and economically significant. This methodology is motivated by the `beta representation,' which implies that the market risk premium is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012902980
This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We … show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and … robust to the inclusion of existing domestic and U.S. predictors and alternative U.S. volatility risk proxies. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236052
We study whether prices of traded options contain information about future extreme market events. Our option-implied conditional expectation of market loss due to tail events, or tail loss measure, predicts future market returns, magnitude, and probability of the market crashes, beyond and above...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010226098
This paper investigates the predictive ability of international volatility risk for the daily aggregate Chinese stock … market returns. We employ the innovations in implied volatility indices of seven major international markets as our … international volatility risk proxies. We find that international volatility risks are negatively associated with contemporaneous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972144
volatility, but remains similar across levels of default risk and systematic volatility. These findings contribute to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012852955
The risk premium of stocks due to priced variance risk is summarized to two variables -- the stock-specific price of variance risk (the difference between realized and option-implied variance) and the quantity (i.e., how stock prices respond to their variance shocks) of variance risk....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012855216
This paper decomposes the risk premia of individual stocks into contributions from systematic and idiosyncratic risks. I introduce an affine jump-diffusion model, which accounts for both the factor structure of asset returns and that of the variance of idiosyncratic returns. The estimation is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011410917
underlying stock (asset) is subject to discontinuous market regime type of shifts in its mean or volatility whose risk can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013130931