Using a semi-supervised topic model on 7,000,000 New York Times articles spanning 160 years, we test whether topics of media discourse predict future stock and bond market returns to test rational and behavioral hypotheses about market valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse...

We study the risk-reversal premium, where out-of-the-money puts are over-priced relative to out-of-the-money calls. This effect is driven by investors’ utility preferences which lead them to over-pay for the risk reduction benefits of long puts instead of valuing options on the basis of...

We present a framework of heterogeneous yield curves of agents based on the pricing kernel approach in order to model LIBOR and basis swap rates. Each yield curve may imply different prices of assets but is consistent with swap rates, basis swap rates and foreign exchange rates. We show three...

We solve a dynamic equilibrium model with generalized disappointment aversion preferences and continuous state endowment dynamics. We apply the framework to the term structure of interest rates and show that the model generates an upward sloping term structure of nominal interest rates, a...

Secure multi-party computation (MPC) allows for the implementation of smart contracts that can be programmed to self-execute ad-hoc financial contracts constructed dynamically and traded on a variety of auction platform typologies (over-the-counter, peer-to-peer, electronic limit order books)....

This paper is written with two complementary purposes in mind. The first is to provide estimates of systematic risk for Canadian commodities futures (western barley, canola, flaxseed, feed wheat) using a market portfolio based on a similar weighting scheme suggested by Marcus. The second is to...

This paper introduces a model-free decomposition of S&P 500 forward market index returns in terms of realized and implied dispersion, downside, and tail risk using option portfolios. The decomposition lends itself by construction to learn about the different sources of risk in the market return,...

Realized divergence gauges the distinct realized moments associated with time-varying uncertainty and is tradeable with divergence swaps engineered from delta-hedged option portfolios. Consistently with established notions of symmetry in arbitrage-free option markets, implied divergence...

This paper develops an optimal trading strategy explicitly linked to an agent's preferences and assessment of the distribution of asset returns. The price of this strategy is a portfolio of implied moments, and its expected excess returns naturally accommodate compensation for higher-order...

The proliferation of factor investing strategies in recent years has highlighted the idea that a portfolio can harvest improved risk-adjusted returns through timed exposure to risk factors during times of elevated risk premia. While there is a large body of research on such risk factors and risk...