We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...

Understanding variance risk is of key importance in mathematical finance since it affects risk management, asset allocation and derivative pricing. Variance risk is priced in financial markets by the so-called variance risk premium (VRP), which refers to the premium demanded for holding assets...

We perform an empirical analysis of trading strategies based on the systematic selling of delta hedged options, aiming at capturing the so-called volatility risk premium. We compare the performance across different strikes and maturities, and perform a breakdown of the drivers of performance. We...

The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the...

This paper provides novel insights into the dynamic properties of variance and semivariance premia. Considering nine international stock market indices, we find consistent evidence of significantly negative total and downside (semi)variance premia of around -15 bps per month. These premia almost...

This paper studies time variation in the expected excess returns of traded claims on dividends, bonds, and stock indices for international markets. We introduce a novel dividend risk factor that complements the well-known bond risk factor of Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005). When the dividend risk...

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500; options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then...

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P 500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then...

We decompose the squared VIX index, derived from US S&P500 options prices, into the conditional variance of stock returns and the equity variance premium. We evaluate a plethora of state-of-the-art volatility forecasting models to produce an accurate measure of the conditional variance. We then...

This paper develops a Monte-Carlo backtesting procedure for risk premia strategies and employs it to study Time-Series Momentum (TSM). Relying on time-series models, empirical residual distributions and copulas we overcome two key drawbacks of conventional backtesting procedures. We create...