A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty...

We propose a two-country model with heterogeneous beliefs to understand the forward premium puzzle. Facing a shock to the domestic money supply, the disagreement between domestic and foreign investors shifts the relative wealth of investors, which moves the exchange rate and interest rate...

We document a strong positive cross-sectional relation between corporate bond yield spreads and bond return volatilities. As corporate bond prices are generally attributable to both credit risk and illiquidity as discussed in Huang and Huang (2012), we apply a decomposition methodology to...

This paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets, in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous expectations about future economic conditions. Our model shows that heterogeneous expectations can not only lead to speculative trading, but can also help resolve several challenges...

The ISDA CDS standard model assumes a single flat hazard rate (default intensity) rather than a term structure of hazard rates. This assumption introduces biases into CDS spreads for empirical research after the CDS Big Bang. This paper is the first to document the biases and provide a simple...

The sovereign CDS market has been growing rapidly in recent years, with a gross notional amount of around 2 trillion dollars in 2015. We document a strong momentum effect in this market. Its unique feature is that this momentum strategy returns are positively skewed and higher during recessions....

This paper presents a dynamic equilibrium model of bond markets, in which two groups of agents hold heterogeneous expectations about future economic conditions. Our model shows that heterogeneous expectations can not only lead to speculative trading, but can also help resolve several challenges...