The goals of this paper are twofold: we describe common features in data sets from motor vehicle insurance companies and we investigate a general strategy which exploits the knowledge of such features. The results of the strategy are a basis to develop insurance tariffs. The strategy is applied...

Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estimation of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if...