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The role of commodity prices in forecasting U.S. core inflation

Gospodinov, Nikolaj - 2016

This note documents a curious finding about the substantial forecast ability of a simple aggregator of three commodity futures prices for U.S. core inflation. The proposed aggregator reduces the out-of-sample root mean squared error for 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts of the benchmark AR(1)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011428084

Risk-free rates and convenience yields around the world

Diamond, William; Van Tassel, Peter - 2022

This paper constructs risk-free interest rates implicit in index option prices for ten of the major G11 currencies. We compare these rates to the yields of government bonds to provide international estimates of the convenience yield earned by safe assets. Average convenience yields across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013363650

Volatility predictability in crude oil futures : evidence based on OVX, GARCH and stochastic volatility models

Zhang, Zheng; Raza, Muhammad Yousaf; Wang, Wenxue; Sui, Lu - In: Energy strategy reviews 50 (2023), pp. 1-12

The paper examines the volatility predictive ability of the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX), GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models in the crude oil market. Specifically, the dynamics of two major crude oil pricing benchmarks - Brent in Europe and WTI in America are compared. OVX index is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014574074

Forecasting the Price of Crude Oil Via Convenience Yield Predictions

Knetsch, Thomas - 2016

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity … pricing. The approach suggests shifting the forecasting problem to the marginal convenience yield which can be derived from …. For all criteria employed, the proposed forecasting tool outperforms the approach of using futures prices as direct …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012991189

What does the convenience yield curve tell us about the crude oil market?

Alquist, Ron; Bauer, Gregory H.; Díez de los Ríos, Antonio - 2014

Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010401755

Speculation in Commodity Futures Markets, Inventories and the Price of Crude Oil

Byun, Sung Je - 2021

This paper examines the role of inventories in refiners' gasoline production and develops a structural model of the relationship between crude oil prices and inventories. Using data on inventories and prices of oil futures, I show that convenience yields decrease at a diminishing rate as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314658

Commodity futures return predictability and intertemporal asset pricing

Cotter, John; Eyiah-Donkor, Emmanuel; Potì, Valerio - 2020

We find out-of-sample predictability of commodity futures excess returns using forecast combinations of 28 potential predictors. Such gains in forecast accuracy translate into economically significant improvements in certainty equivalent returns and Sharpe ratios for a mean-variance investor....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012418356

Convenience yield and the theory of storage : applying an option-based approach

Omura, Akihiro; West, Jason - In: The Australian journal of agricultural and resource … 59 (2015) 3, pp. 355-374

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392918

Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices

Gospodinov, Nikolaj; Jamali, Ibrahim - 2013

Using futures data for the period 1990 - 2008, this paper finds evidence that expansionary monetary policy surprises tend to increase crude and heating oil prices, and contractionary monetary policy shocks increase gold and platinum prices. Our analysis uncovers substantial heterogeneity in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010201348

A joint affine model of commodity futures and US Treasury yields

Chin, Michael; Liu, Zhuoshi - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010497510

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