We analyze the relation between volatility and speculative activities in the crude oil futures market and provide short-term forecasts accordingly. By incorporating trading volume and opening interest (speculative ratio) into the volatility dynamics, we document the subtle interaction between...

We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market...

We conduct efficiency test using the conventional method in Chordia, Roll, and Subrahmanyam (2005) and the wavelet analysis. For the FTSE-100 futures data from January 2001 through December 2004, both approaches identify that, conditional on order imbalance, it takes about 10 minutes for the...

This paper contributes to the debate on commodity financialization by extending tests of herd behavior to the commodity futures markets. Utilizing a regime-switching model, we test the presence of herd behavior in a number of commodity sectors; including energy, metals, grains, and livestock;...

Dynamic minimum variance hedge ratios (MVHRs) have been commonly estimated using Bivariate GARCH model that overlooks basis effect on the time-varying variance-covariance of spot and futures returns. This paper proposes an alternative specification of the BGARCH model in which the basis effect...