It remains unclear whether or not Russia will actually invade Ukraine, and if it does so, what form this invasion will take. In this note, we outline two broad scenarios: targeted strikes by Russia in Ukraine accompanied by further non-military destabilisation efforts, or a full invasion, and we...

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered a humanitarian, economic, financial and political crisis that will reverberate across Europe. In this Policy Note we analyse the short- and medium-term implications of the conflict. We find that the most severe economic and financial impact will be...

This paper investigates the equilibrium exchange rates of three Southeastern European countries (Bulgaria, Croatia and Romania), of two CIS economies (Russia and Ukraine) and of Turkey.A systematic approach in terms of different time horizons at which the equilibrium exchange rate is assessed is...

Lacking data on price levels across locations (countries, national regions, etc.) for crossspace comparisons, researchers resort to local consumer price indexes (CPIs) over time to evaluate these levels.This approach unfortunately fails to specify, even generally, the exactness of such...

We assess the effects of oil price shocks on real exchange rate and output in four large energy-producing countries: Iran, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Russia. We estimate four-variable structural vector autoregressive models using standard long-run restrictions. Not surprisingly, we find that...

The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Russia during the period of 2000–2012 using vector error correction model. Exchange rate pass-through asymmetry estimates, its assessments on different sub-periods and exchange rate...

We exploit variation in consumer price inflation across 71 Russian regions to examine the relationship between the perceived stability of the domestic currency and financial dollarization. Our results show that regions with higher inflation experience an increase in the dollarization of...

In Russia, the pre-conditions for a successful transition to inflation targeting are beginning to emerge. The economy remains highly dependent upon the external economic conjuncture, but the financial crisis made for a steep increase in the demand of commercial banks for refinancing by the CBR....

The data of the Gaidar Institute's surveys of industrial enterprises received in February presented a controversial pattern of the state of things in the industry: explicit growth in sales and output along with high redundancy of stocks of fi nished goods and a definite drop in optimism of...