Preliminary data on Russia's economic results of 2015, as well as the current trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible scenarios for Russia's economy in 2016-2017. For instance, a scenario of yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the...

Developments that unfolded in Q1 2016, particularly the decline of crude oil prices down to a 12-year low, may result in worse-than-expected outcomes at 2016 year-end. Unlike the forecast that we made in January, we have revised down our 2016 baseline scenario for GDP growth rates from -1.4% to...

In 2013 the situation in the banking sector of the RF underwent major changes. On the one hand, the volume indicators of the banking sector continued to grow, although more slowly than before. However, this growth was mainly due to aggressive behaviour of the banks in the consumer lending...

The current innovative economy considers digitalization as a factor influencing the most important socio-economic processes, including those related to progressive structural changes, social development, improvement of the efficiency of public administration, and growth of the population's...

In this study, we have attempted a broad review of the literature examining the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade volume. We show that early estimates suggesting a significant increase in trade among countries in currency unions are flawed, and are due to a number of reasons related to...

Целью данной работы является исследование влияния макроэкономических показателей на финансовые рынки и анализ степени влияния этих факторов. В первом разделе...

The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the...

In his Annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly on 30 November 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin underscored Russia's goal to catch up with the world average growth rates by 2019–2020. As a reminder, the IMF projects 3.7% for the average annual growth rate of the global economy...

The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia's GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the...

The Gaidar Institute has developed a method of decomposing Russia's GDP growth rates into the structural, foreign trade, and market-based components based on the decomposition algorithm decomposing macroeconomic indicators of developed countries (OECD). The algorithm has been refi ned to take...