This paper explores, from an investment-saving perspective, the factors underlying the persistent widening of the current account surplus in the Netherlands since the early 1980s. Standard intertemporal models, even appropriately extended to incorporate specific features of the Dutch economy, do...

This paper studies the effect of demographic change on national saving, global interest rates, and international capital flows, focusing on the role of the public pension system. We develop a small open economy overlapping generations model to illustrate the channels through which demographic...

Since the late-1990s, the global economy is characterised by historically low risk premia and an unprecedented widening of external imbalances. This paper explores to what extent these two global trends can be understood as a reaction to three structural shocks in different regions of the global...

In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recession, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...

In 2007, countries in the Euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits, and low spreads. Then the financial crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recessions, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010,they were facing severe debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly,...

This paper argues that the 40-year-old Feldstein-Horioka “puzzle” (i.e., that in a regression of the domestic investment rate on the domestic saving rate, the estimated coefficient is significantly larger than what would be expected in a world characterized by high capital mobility) should...

This paper argues that the 40-year-old Feldstein-Horioka "puzzle" (i.e., that in a regression of the domestic investment rate on the domestic saving rate, the estimated coefficient is significantly larger than what would be expected in a world characterized by high capital mobility) should have...

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) argued that the correlation of saving and investment in a cross-section of countries may provide a test of global capital mobility. This paper argues that neither the long-run nor the short-run correlation can serve as a reliable basis for such a test. The...

We demonstrate that the correlation of saving and investment is measured best by an error correction model (ECM), because theory implies a cointegrating relation between these variables. The ECM comprises all previous specifications as special cases, which are shown to be potentially...

This paper shows that general equilibrium effects can partly rationalize the high correlation between saving and investment rates observed in OECD countries. We find that once controlling for general equilibrium effects the saving-retention coefficient remains high in the 70's but decreases...