Contends that a way to handle uncertainty is by using scenario‐building techniques as a means of exploring possible, alternative futures in response to the Y2K problem. Employs 2 Figures featuring different scenarios. Believes that scenarios within are only possible alternative futures as...

Weighs up the word scenario and its use in modern business. Emphasizes that scenario methodologies come into three categories, which are: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis; and cross‐impact analysis. States scenarios used in exercise situations depend on the intended use, and budget and...

Discusses Pierre Wack, the Frenchman credited, along with Ted Newland, as the developer of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, that then developed and used scenarios to good effect. Looks in depth at some of Wack's scenario concepts showing how many organizations have used scenarios with...

Advocates a good scenario as one that captures the dynamics of the situation and communicates the point effectively. Suggests the best way to develop a manageable number of such scenarios is at two‐day off‐site seminars, and those attending should include: senior managers; people operating...

Looks at an approach to scenario planning characterized by its future‐oriented attitude, and attributed to Michel Godet — a French strategy specialist. Uses a Figure depicting Godet's scenario method for added emphasis. Depicts Godet's scenario as a description of a future situation and the...

Recounts an approach to scenario management with a German viewpoint. States scenarios are a way of helping organizations to reduce the uncertainties inherent in developing the right success potentials in time to retain competitiveness. Stresses that a typical scenario project is a five‐stage...

States there are there different methodologies for managing alternative futures: intuitive logic; trend‐impact analysis; and cross‐impact analysis. Goes on to give in‐depth examples and explanations of each one of the alternative futures. Concludes many industry associations and some...

Submits that many organizations adopt, unwittingly, the rationalist approach to strategy formulation. Reckons that scenarios provide business planners with means of bringing together apparently unconnected fragments of information into views of the future. Posits organizations that develop...

Lists 20 common pitfalls regarding scenario planning and divides them into 2 parts: process; and content. Uses a shaded box to highlight other things to watch out for — these number 7 in total. Concludes the list is a very valid one and should be taken note of.

Declares the effort involved in scenario creation means organizations are loath to publicize them. Depicts corporate scenarios in the public domain as: Statoil; Digital Equipment Corporation; US Defence Industry; and an unnamed US IT company; plus the European Commission. Lists generic scenarios...