The paper considers a SUTSE model embedded in a dynamic framework to estimate an energy cost share model for the Italian economy in an evolutionary environment. This is achieved by allowing stochastic seasonal and trend components in the long-run specification and constructing an error...

Due to their well-known indeterminacies, factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee unique parameter estimates. For Bayesian estimation, these identifying assumptions are usually implemented by imposing constraints on certain model parameters. This strategy, however, may result...

This paper studies what happens when we move from a short regression to a long regression (or vice versa), when the long regression is shorter than the data-generation process. In the special case where the long regression equals the data-generation process, the least-squares estimators have...

This paper revisits the fractional co-integrating relationship between ex-ante implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility. Previous studies on stock index options have found biases and inefficiencies in implied volatility as a forecast of future volatility. It is argued that the concept...

The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...

A simple methodology is presented for modeling time variation in volatilities and other higher-order moments using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetricsTM approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution. This allows the parameter dynamics...

Due to their indeterminacies, static and dynamic factor models require identifying assumptions to guarantee uniqueness of the parameter estimates. The indeterminacy of the parameter estimates with respect to orthogonal transformations is known as the rotation problem. The typical strategy in...

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...

This paper develops a method to select the threshold in threshold-based jump detection methods. The method is motivated by an analysis of threshold-based jump detection methods in the context of jump-diffusion models. We show that over the range of sampling frequencies a researcher is most...

There are a number of econometrics tools to deal with the different types of situations in which cointegration can appear: I(1), I(2), seasonal, polyno- mial, etc. There are also different kinds of Vector Error Correction models related to these situations. The authors propose a unified...