In econometric modelling the choice of relevant variables is of crucial importance for the Interpretation of the results. In many cases it is based on some a priori knowledge from economic theory and a rather heuristic procedure for determining other influential variables sometimes based on an...

The assessment of models of financial market behavior requires evaluation tools. When complexity hinders a direct estimation approach, e.g., for agent based microsimulation models or complex multifractal models, simulation based estimators might provide an alternative. In order to apply such...

Estimation and modelling problems as they arise in many fields often turn out to be intractable by standard numerical methods. One way to deal with such a situation consists in simplifying models and procedures. However, the solutions to these simplified problems might not be satisfying. A...

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecifed...

In vector autoregressive analysis confidence intervals for individual impulse responses are typically reported to indicate the sampling uncertainty in the estimation results. A range of methods are reviewed and a new proposal is made for constructing joint confidence bands, given a prespecified...

In impulse response analysis estimation uncertainty is typically displayed by constructing bands around estimated impulse response functions. These bands may be based on frequentist or Bayesian methods. If they are based on the joint distribution in the Bayesian framework or the joint asymptotic...